Change Agent | Cate Trotter
Send Story to a FriendWhat scenarios could the vision piece incorporate?
Having told you all about how great a scenario planning-style video would be, I thought I should bring it to life by outlining a few ways in which it could work. It should also help outline the overall scenario planning process for you too!
(If you'd like to read more about my video idea, you can catch up here and here.)
Method 1: Positive and Negative Scenarios
(I'll tell you about the second method in an upcoming post)
The axes
One approach to scenario planning fleshes out futures based on two axes. Two axes = four possible scenarios.
Each side of each axis is quite different, helping us develop four very different scenarios, which we can then imagine.
Here's a nice diagram I drew just for you, showing how we map these things visually.
If you're having trouble reading the axes, the horizontal one looks at possible amounts of individual action, rather from little to lots, and the vertical one looks at possible amounts of government action, from little to lots. By 'action', I mean action towards truly sustainable lifestyles.
Fleshing out the scenarios
In a workshop situation, we'd go through each scenario, finding some examples from life today that represents what you would see more of in a particular scenario. This helps us get a feel for the scenario, and develops a collective understanding of what it might be like.
When beginning to imagine scenarios, we generally start with the most depressing future first, and work up to the most optimistic. Hence A is in the most depressing corner (a scenario in which both the government and individuals take little action to develop sustainably).
Some quick examples of what each scenario might include:
- Scenario A (little government action, little individual action): logos of polluting brands that remain popular, stories of countries growing with only their economies in mind
- Scenario B (lots of government action, little individual action): examples of legislation that cause companies to become greener, stories of the hardest-hitting climate conferences
- Scenario C (little government action, lots of individual action): initiatives such as Kiva bank, farmer's markets, businesses becoming greener due to encouragement form employees – except across the board, not just in some businesses and demographics
- Scenario D (lots of government action, lots of individual action): examples of government initiatives that people really support and believe in: perhaps cycle schemes such as Bixi bikes in Canada, grants for people who install solar energy systems in their homes
Do excuse me if my examples are a bit vague – at it's very fastest, the process takes at least a day, and I'm writing this off the top of my head on a sunny Saturday afternoon!
Life in the scenarios
We can use a variety of techniques to bring each scenario to life for us, perhaps writing out newspaper headlines for each quadrant. These can be as out there as you wish!
- Scenario A (little government action, little individual action): "Gulf Stream switches off", "Bangladesh citizens half of 2000 levels"
- Scenario B (lots of government action, little individual action): "Congestion charge raised again despite Londoners' anger", "G8 fund new global carbon initiative"
- Scenario C (little government action, lots of individual action): "Freecycle helps reduce landfill rates by 50%", "All London cafes now using local, organic ingredients"
- Scenario D (lots of government action, lots of individual action): "Green Party wins its first national election", "Free public transport for all sees car sales drop by 70%"
Again, apologies if the examples are a little crude!
How would this manifest itself in a video?
We could flesh out each scenario as much as we could, looking at all the forces in play and the effects it would lead to. We'd then develop a story around that scenario - 'a day in the life' could work quite well.
But there are lots of other possibilities for sustainable/unsustainable futures, right?
You bet! I drew out two more for you below.
The first looks at the amount of action the West and developing countries each decide to take.
The second looks at how different levels of behaviour change and sustainable technologies might relate.
There are loads of other possible axes though – I'd love to know what others you can think of in the comments section, or even how the various scenarios might manifest themselves.
And check back soon – because I'll tell you all about the other approach to these scenarios that I've been thinking about.
+ Insider Trends' Scenario Planning for businesses
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